Translation Please!

I found this definition in an interesting article about programme risk management... it would be very helpful if I could understand this portion fully. My maths are a bit rusty, I understand the first portion a bit, but need confirmation for the meaning of (2).

Any help would be appreciated. :)

--

The article:

KWAN, T. W. & LEUNG, H. K. N. Measuring Risks within a Program Consisting of Multiple Interdependent Projects. 2009. IEEE, 1-7.

A New Beginning

Okay... so I got feedback from my supervisor regarding my thesis outline. Although a lot of questions have been raised after our discussion, (I think) at least he approves the direction I'm headed! So hopefully this will keep the ball rolling. So now I'm confident in putting my research question up... here goes...

---
INTRODUCTION

International development programmes and projects exist in a climate of significant uncertainties (Ika et al., 2010, Khang and Moe, 2008, Kwak and Dewan, 2001). The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) environment, in particular, deals with multifaceted organisational structures, wide-ranging mandates, numerous stakeholders, controlled resources and limited capacities (Terzi and Posta, 2010, Browne, 2011).

Concerned with the agency’s risk responsiveness, in its 2008-2011 Strategic Plan, UNDP advocated organisation-wide efforts on improving its risk management capabilities (UNDP, 2008). UNDP recognises the value of efficiently managing threats and calculatingly pursuing opportunities to achieve development results (UNDP, 2008). Concurrently, UNDP also acknowledges the challenge of integrating the practice of systematic risk management into its culture; especially in its country offices (Terzi and Posta, 2010).

In the context of improving programme outcomes, this research work attempts to provide recommendations for increasing risk management maturity. This study explores the extent of current risk management practices on selected UNDP Country Programmes.

RESEARCH QUESTION and OBJECTIVES

Question: How can UNDP improve its risk management practice to contribute towards achieving country programme outcomes?

Objectives:
1. To profile the risk management maturity levels of selected UNDP Country Programmes.
2. To find relationship between risk management maturity and programme outcomes.
3. To highlight areas of vulnerabilities in the current risk management practice.
4. To provide recommendations for increasing risk management capability.

---
References

BROWNE, S. 2011. The United Nations Development Programme and System, Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, Routledge.

IKA, L. A., DIALLO, A. & THUILLIER, D. 2010. Project management in the international development industry: The project coordinator's perspective. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 3, 61-93.


KHANG, D. B. & MOE, T. L. 2008. Success criteria and factors for international development projects: A life‐cycle‐based framework. Project Management Journal, 39, 72-84.

KWAK, Y. H. & DEWAN, S. Risk management in international development projects. Proceedings of the Project Management Institute Annual Seminars & Symposium, 2001 Nashville, Tenn, USA.

TERZI, C. & POSTA, I. 2010. Review of Enterprise Risk Management in the United Nations System: Benchmarking Framework. Available: http://www.unjiu.org/data/reports/2010/en2010_4.pdf [Accessed 01 February 2012].

UNDP. 2008. UNDP strategic plan 2008-2011: Accelerating global progress on human development. Available: www.undp.org/execbrd/word/dp07-43Rev1.doc [Accessed 01 February 2012].

18 Feb 2012 Tutorials

Questions for my questions...! Today's tutorials raised a lot of questions. But at least I somehow found some possible routes through the fuzziness of this research. I'm putting my current research question in a separate post.

Here I am just highlighting the inputs and questions I got from my supervisors:

Dennis:

1. UNDP Risk Management Process -- should risk retirement be included?
2. Step 4 and 5 in the ERM cycle (Action and Monitoring & Reporting) can be the potential focus of my research
3. Should the research be limited to CMM to risk management? Perhaps a more cohesive approach?
4. Can programme outcomes be related to risk management level? - There is a possibility that research will be inconclusive. There is a latency in between risk management implementation and seeing the programme outcomes.
5. A possible approach to the project is to look at parallels. Is the success of risk management in other industries transferable to the UNDP context?

Eddie:

1. What is UNDP's appetite for risk?
2. True commitment/implementation to risk management in UNDP might be nil!
3. Look into Prince2 strategies, UNDP has put in a lot of effort in 'benefits strategy'. Now UNDP is starting on 'risk strategy'... Look into this.
4. Perhaps a more cohesive approach to risk management? Balanced scorecard approach, taking into account benefits, quality, configuration etc?

Alec:

1. Possible approach for research is to look at end results, lessons learned and see where risk management could have been applied. Track back... reverse engineering(?)
2. Is the UNDP risk management framework fit for its purpose? How is it different from the framework of corporations? Is it the same?
3. What is so special about the risk management framework in UNDP?
• If the same, how can it be applied more efficiently?
• If different, how can the framework be tailored to the context of UNDP
4. Is there a discernible outcome where risk management is applied (or not applied?) in UNDP projects?
• If not, why not? Is it because risk management is not properly applied or is it because the framework/method doesn't work?
5. Suggest to first conduct study/research on risk management and the risk management framework of UNDP
• But! prioritise what data is publicly available, and what data should  be asked from Eddie.
• Availability of data is crucial!

Augh!!! I'm not sure if my research is getting fuzzier or clearer. So much questions to answer... so much work to do! 

Project and Change

Managing change is part of project management (PM).
So... can managing transitions in an organisation be considered a project? ...even if the terminology and processes of PM are not really used?

Trying to scope my thesis...