Should I be upset?

After some back breaking data crunching, I finally finished coding through 304 documents! I tried some initial analysis using SPSS and it seems like my data is not looking so good. :( 

Although I don't think I should be upset, as I think there is a pattern emerging that I can make some sense of. I'm running through some other descriptive statistical tools and trying some non-parametric tests to get some reaffirmation of these initial figures. 

Note: I'm not a statistics expert, but I'm quite relieved that when I opened the statistics books I can still seem to understand majority of it. Yeay! I'm really excited to do some analysis... but right now I'm just really tired from the coding I've been through.

Click images to enlarge!

Progress: 18 July 2012

I'm getting some progress with my work and just happy to present these diagrams that seem to make the sense out of my work (more than my write up). After much deliberation on my research structure, I have decided this will by my methodology scheme:

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Also I've finally made sense of the documents I'm using! I've tied it up with my discussion on UNDP. Basically it's going to be the documents on the programme level + UNDAF. Still trying to decide whether to include documents on the project level.

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Late Night Library Musings

Been cracking my head on a research issue... Been here in the library all day, skimming through documents, coding, thinking and panicking. Did not even notice that time flew so fast! So night time falls and I decided to try draw the picture of my situation.

So this is a glimpse of how my brain looks like (I'm sure the jumbled thoughts in my head must be amplified by a 1000x). Pictures are a bit blurred but I need a form of reference of my musings. 

At this rate... I'm getting really worried. But I don't think I'll get anything more done for tonight... so off to home now...

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Just in case you are interested in what I'm fussing about:

My research question is: To what extent does programme risk management practice contribute to achieving UNDP programme outcomes?

My research method is designed to be unobtrusive; thus I am heavily depending on using UN documents that have been already created and published. Using these documents  I am trying to infer the extent of (1) how UNDP country programmes uses/perceives  programme risk management and (2) how programme risk management is valued in the process of achieving programme outcomes.

Through my research so far I have been able to:

• Trim down my study's target population to 15 countries within the Europe and CIS region.
• Set the time-frame of the programme cycles to be within the years 2005-2011; the rationale being, so that the outcomes are already evident.
• Gather, complete and read the top 3 country programme documents (UNDAF, CPD and CPAP) of the 15 countries; where the documents have narrated how the programmes are supposed to be managed (but only some includes a risk management aspect)
• Skim through the ERC website, where the documents can give me inferences of the outcomes of the programmes.

What is causing me to worry is: so far I hardly see any explicit risk management aspect in the documents that I have. In addition, I've also gathered that the UN system has proposed and implemented an enterprise risk management framework; but I have realised that the framework was introduced in 2008, mid-way through the programme cycle (therefore will not be evident in the documents that I have).

10-11 May 2012 Tutorials

My thesis is forming up a bit, and  I think I have nearly nailed down the question that I am trying to answer. I am glad that we did the sessions, and it is just clear that I really need to figure out what is it exactly I am doing. 

For the most part, I have the generic baseline stuff that I need to form my thesis. I already know the type of data I will be using. And I have the generic idea of what my literature would look like. The real problem is the question... so after much discussion with Alec and Dennis, I sat down in the learning grid to clear things out... I think I almost have it:

UNDP RBM Presentation

Found a site containing various presentations:

http://www.slideshare.net/undpeuropeandcis/tag/undp

Interestingly I found a presentation a bit similar to our discussion during the tutorials. It kind of links the results chain to particular documents

http://www.slideshare.net/Ramen24/resultbased-management-and-the-undaf-matrix-for-country

 Here are some slides from the presentation: 

Sources of Programme Risk

According to Hillson, there are four sources of programme risk:

1. Escalated project risks - some project risks can affect a programme; project risks within a set threshold can be escalated as a programme risk.
2. Aggregated project risks - compilation of numerous project risks that can threaten the achievement of programme objectives.
3. Overall programme risks
4. Non-project risks - risks from non-project components

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HILLSON, D. 2008. Towards programme risk management
URL:http://www.risk-doctor.com/pdf-files/ADV11.pdf

UNDP Country Programming

UNDP Country programming cycle (UNDP, 2011)

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UNDP 2011, National Implementation by Government of UNDP Supported Projects: Guidelines and Procedures.

Mapping UNDP

I do some scratch-work on loose bits of paper... just trying to make sense of things. I'm taking pictures of them and documenting it here in my blog so I can refer back to them (just in case if I mistakenly throw them away).

I found this today... I actually did this 2-or-3 weeks back. I found it quite useful. 

Cleaner version of the above picture.

RBM Results Chain + Risk Management

In relation to my previous post, this diagram may help clarify the difference on outputs, outcomes, impact and results:

(UNDP, 2011)

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UPDATE (30 Jan 2012 6:40PM):
A results chain spin-off  incorporating risk management:

(Cobo et al., 2010)