UNDP RBM Presentation

Found a site containing various presentations:

http://www.slideshare.net/undpeuropeandcis/tag/undp

Interestingly I found a presentation a bit similar to our discussion during the tutorials. It kind of links the results chain to particular documents

http://www.slideshare.net/Ramen24/resultbased-management-and-the-undaf-matrix-for-country

 Here are some slides from the presentation: 

27-28 March 2012 Tutorials

I think I got some creative juice running after our philosophical tutorials!

27 March 2012

Today, we did not talk about our projects in detail; rather we discussed more about the philosophy behind research. It gave me some comfort that somehow I'm not totally lost in what I  am doing... I'm actually undergoing an inductive process where I am looking at the context of things and thereby (I might) form a theory.  Also we talked about the phenomenology of meaning in research. Is the meaning of the world given or is meaning derived from the way we interpret and observe things? I am a bit more of an interpretivist, I think meaning is formed from the perspectives of our minds (influenced by culture etc...); as opposed to a positivist who argues that meaning is out there and absolute (?).  It was a mind boggling discussion but it got me into a different way of thinking. Which I really need at the moment!

28 March 2012

I benefited a lot from our one-to-one session, it answered a lot of my worries. We talked about...

1. the possible discussion I can have with Eddie to get started with the data I need,
2. a different perspective on the approach to my research; which I think is fantastic! I can look at my research as a form of a risk assessment for UNDP,
3. a diagram of how how outputs-outcomes-impacts relate to each other and how risk is embedded in it,
4. my research question (and made some iterations),
5. the depth of risk management theory I have to look into
6. the comparison and contrast of MSP guidelines and the actuality of 
7. the course of action if the data returns to me is not what I expected

With these discussion raise a lot more questions that I need to answer (some basic, but some more in-depth):

1. What is a country office?
• How is it organised?
• What is the turnover? Is it a factor for risk management?
2. Define risk management
3. Given that I will do the project as a risk assessment of UNDP, what data do I need?
4. Are the asserted goals matched with the outcomes?
5. Does UNDP require risk management process to be aligned?
6. What does MSP say about the risk management methods? 
• Does UNDP conform to it? Why? Why not?

Generally a productive meeting. But I still feel like I'm in a fog, but I got an idea.! I'll share the idea once I get some fruition from it.

Europe and CIS UNDP

Just got a bit of a nudge to look at Europe and CIS UNDP. Found an interesting page and with it other interesting links that could be useful for my project.

http://europeandcis.undp.org/home/AboutUs/show/ABCA4902-F203-1EE9-BDC3749532FDE254

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Looking forward to jump start/wake-up call in tomorrow's meeting with Alec.
Because, to be honest right now... progress 0%.

Translation Please!

I found this definition in an interesting article about programme risk management... it would be very helpful if I could understand this portion fully. My maths are a bit rusty, I understand the first portion a bit, but need confirmation for the meaning of (2).

Any help would be appreciated. :)

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The article:

KWAN, T. W. & LEUNG, H. K. N. Measuring Risks within a Program Consisting of Multiple Interdependent Projects. 2009. IEEE, 1-7.

Sources of Programme Risk

According to Hillson, there are four sources of programme risk:

1. Escalated project risks - some project risks can affect a programme; project risks within a set threshold can be escalated as a programme risk.
2. Aggregated project risks - compilation of numerous project risks that can threaten the achievement of programme objectives.
3. Overall programme risks
4. Non-project risks - risks from non-project components

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HILLSON, D. 2008. Towards programme risk management
URL:http://www.risk-doctor.com/pdf-files/ADV11.pdf

Measuring an Organisation's Risk Appetite

One of the questions I need to answer in my dissertation is: What is UNDP's risk appetite?

Initial reading from Gambir Bhatta's "Don't do something, stand there! Revisiting the Issue of Risks in Innovation in the Public Sector":

Each organization’s appetite or tolerance for risks is unique and will vary according to any one (or combination) of several variables but may be conceived of as in: the extent of its legal mandate including any fuzzy boundaries around it; the intractability of the problem it is dealing with; the strategy(ies) it pursues to meet the mandate; its degree of access to relevant information; its organizational culture; the management style of its leaders although it could be argued that over time, this will tend to settle at a level that is determined by the organizational culture rather than the leaders’ styles); the responsible minister’s own risk appetite; and the organization’s age.

Notationally, this could be framed as:

Departmental Risk Appetite

{RAd = f(M1, M2, S, Ia, OC, MS, MRAt-1, OA, e}

where M1 is organizational mandate, M2 is degree of problem intractability, S is strategy, Ia is degree of access to relevant information, OC is organizational culture, MS is manager’s style, MRAt-1 is minister’s risk appetite (which itself is also a function of the collective risk appetite of government, and of the perception of severity of risk but lagged because it generally takes time to diffuse to departmental level), OA is age of organization, and e is the error term.

Link: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.174.4005&rep=rep1&type=pdf.

Re-acquaintance with Risk Management

'Not having enough knowledge on risk management' is one of my biggest risk for my thesis. Interestingly, I had a little discussion with Alec and Dennis whether this is a worry, issue or risk... (which is really confusing me right now!).

To manage this worry/issue/risk (of not having sufficient knowledge) I realise I need to read about risk management on a deeper level. I have read some books on risk management process for my module assignments, but this is the first time I'm approaching a book to understand the underlying philosophy of risk management.

To start with, I picked up a small undaunting thin book entitled "Exploiting Future Uncertainty: Creating Value from Risk" by David Hillson.
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A question on the first chapter directly caught my attention:

Can we prove a link between risk management practice and improved bottom-line outcomes? (Hillson, 2010)

This directly relates to the question I am trying to answer for my thesis:

How can UNDP improve its risk management practice to contribute towards achieving (country) programme outcomes?

Before I can correlate risk management practice and outcomes in the UNDP context, I need to know first if it is possible to relate risk management to results! Well, at least Hillson is convinced so. These are some insights from the first chapter of the book:

• "If we track performance, we should be able to see if there is any link between our ability to manage risk and success rate."
• From experience over time, it can be demonstrated that as risk management maturity and competence increases, so does success.
• It cannot be ascertained that investing in risk management correlates with lack of problems. But it can be measure how successful risk management creates additional value through maximising opportunities.

Sounds promising, I'm excited to read on!

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HILLSON, D. 2010. Exploiting future uncertainty : creating value from risk, Farnham, Surrey, England ; Burlington, Vt., Gower.