I've been reading "Seeing the Forest for the Trees" to learn more about systems thinking for my Innovation assignment and I encountered an interesting snippet.
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Answers:
- Exponential growth
- 49th day
- On the 40th day, the proportion of the pond covered by lily pads is very small! It would be less than one tenth of one percent! Computed as (1/2)^10
The moral of the story:
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The book is quite interesting; it discusses systems thinking in a simple (ironic considering its a topic about complexity) yet really stimulating manner.
Images are all quotes from Sherwood.
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SHERWOOD, D. 2002. Seeing the forest for the trees : a manager's guide to applying systems thinking, London, Nicholas Brealey Pub.
So how did you get (1/2)^10? I got the same proportion (at 0.00097). But I had to simulate the growth for 50 days and calculate the proportion based on the values. :P
ReplyDeleteI worked my way backwards... if 50days meant that the pond was covered 100%, and 49 days meant 50% (or 1/2), 48 days meant 1/4 or (1/2)^2... and so on... so to simplify (1/2)^10 for the 10 days which equal 0.00097 :D Your mind is too complex! We got the same answer but my solution is simpler (more practical) :D ... or I'm just ignorant of your simulation technique. hahaha
ReplyDeleteLOL... I like your solution better coz it is simpler and you can actually generalize it to (1/2)^x where x is the number of days. Great! I didn't think of it that way. Mine is a bara-bara solution, just to get to an answer. haha :)
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